Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
